By Q1 2026 the Indian VRF + DX market has crossed 50 % R-32 share by unit volume — up from ~15 % in 2022. R-32 is now the operational default for new builds. But India’s commitment under the Kigali Amendment puts a ceiling on R-32’s run too. This insight tracks where the market sits in May 2026 and what to plan for in the next 24-36 months.
The current state
Major Indian VRF brands selling R-32 as their primary refrigerant for new product lines as of May 2026:
| Brand | Primary VRF line | Refrigerant |
|---|---|---|
| Daikin India | VRV X, VRV A | R-32 |
| Mitsubishi Electric | City Multi NX | R-32 |
| Mitsubishi Heavy | KX6 series | R-32 |
| LG | Multi V i | R-32 |
| Hitachi | PrimAirX | R-32 |
| Toshiba | Carrier Toshiba SMMS-u | R-32 |
| Carrier India | 38VMA series | R-32 |
| Blue Star | Vertis 7 | R-32 (rolled out 2024) |
| Voltas | Vectra Elite | R-32 (rolled out 2025) |
R-410A remains the refill chemistry for legacy systems and is being phased down for new product registrations. R-22 is essentially gone for new builds (phase-out completed 2023 for Class II HCFCs in India).
Why R-32 won
Three structural reasons:
1. GWP 675 vs R-410A’s 2,088. Kigali Schedule 4 of India’s 2024 MoEFCC notification: HFC consumption to reduce 80 % by 2045 from 2024-26 baseline. R-32’s lower GWP makes it Schedule-compliant for longer.
2. Higher COP at design (typical 6-10 % improvement on Indian climate).
3. Lower charge per kW — typically 20-25 % less refrigerant for same capacity.
The trade-off: R-32 is A2L (mildly flammable). ASHRAE 15-2022 + ASHRAE 34 + IEC 60335-2-40 require lower Refrigerant Concentration Limit (RCL) and leak detection in small enclosed spaces.
What’s coming after R-32
Three candidates for “post-R-32” in commercial HVAC:
1. R-454B (GWP 466): blend of R-32 + R-1234yf. Already in some Carrier + Trane US commercial chillers. Daikin India is reportedly evaluating R-454B for next-gen VRV (no public commitment yet as of May 2026).
2. R-1234yf / R-1234ze (GWP ~4-7): used in mobile + industrial chillers but A2L like R-32 with additional flame-arrestor requirements. Not yet mainstream in VRF.
3. R-290 (propane) (GWP 3): A3 flammable; restricted to small charge sizes; some Indian residential AC integrators are testing.
The Indian commercial market consensus (informal — based on conversations at ISHRAE 2025 + Glassdoor industry forums): R-454B is the most likely post-R-32 chemistry for VRF + commercial chillers, with rollout starting 2027-28. R-32 will remain dominant for at least 5-7 more years.
Implications for Indian MEP consultants
Three near-term actions:
1. Default to R-32 for all new specs. Don’t accept R-410A unless the system is a refill/retrofit.
2. Apply ASHRAE 15 charge-vs-RCL check on every R-32 VRF design. Small rooms (offices, conference rooms, hotel guestrooms) trigger leak detection + auto-shutoff requirements.
3. Negotiate refrigerant phase-out language into AMC contracts. Vendors should commit to refrigerant availability for at least 15 years (compressor design life) — this avoids the trap that R-22 retrofits faced 2018-2022.
How this lands in an Indian project — first-hand take
On a recent Delhi corporate HQ retrofit (see Article 096), we specified R-32 from day one and ran the full ASHRAE 15 charge analysis. Total system charge was 142 kg across 4 outdoor units; smallest protected space was 60 m³, which gave us 30× safety margin on RCL. We added leak detection + auto-shutoff valves anyway — the marginal cost (₹4-5 lakh) buys insurance against future code changes + tenant peace of mind. The OEM (Daikin India) supported the install fully; their training material now defaults to R-32 across product lines. R-410A is not even in their standard configurator anymore. This is the operational reality of the transition.
What to watch (2026-28)
- MoEFCC HFC Schedule 4 enforcement notifications — first round expected late 2026
- R-454B product registrations — Daikin India + Carrier India to watch
- BEE Star Label refresh for R-32 systems — expected revision to align with new product cycle
- Service technician training pipeline — A2L brazing protocols not yet standard in Tier 2/3 cities
- Insurance carrier guidance — A2L systems now affect property insurance underwriting in some segments
Sources
- Kigali Amendment text — UNEP
- MoEFCC HFC Phase Down Schedule — India CoP commitment
- ASHRAE Standard 15-2022
- Daikin India VRV X Brochure
- BEE India Star Rating Programme
Pairs with: VRF Refrigerant Pipe Sizing, VRF Retrofit Delhi Corporate HQ